The ‘HCFC adder’ in the Kigali Amendment baseline calculation

The Paris Agreement focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol aims to control the production and consumption of a specific category of greenhouse gases, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). To achieve maximum possible climate change mitigation, it is essential to synchronize action under both regimes. Baseline definitions for HFC emission levels under the Kigali Amendment and in the context of the Paris Agreement differ. The former relates to production and consumption of HFCs, the latter to HFC emissions. One crucial and problematic aspect of the Kigali Amendment baseline is the proportion of hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFCs) that can be added to the HFC baseline. It can lead to a significant overestimation of baseline emission levels. The paper provides an in-depth assessment of developing countries’ HFC consumption paths and Kigali Amendment baseline levels. It discusses the implications on NDC reference scenarios and Article 6 baselines and suggests approaches how to safeguard environmental integrity through conservative baseline-setting.